Much has been written on the explosive growth of Five Guys Burgers and Fries from a single carry-out restaurant in Arlington, Virginia in 1986, to the best-kept burger secret inside the Beltway, to its current status as a fast-casual powerhouse brand with over 1,900 stores in 29 countries worldwide. The founders Janie and Jerry Murrell (who along with their four sons were the original Five Guys; now Jerry has retired and a fifth son takes that spot) differentiated their restaurants with larger, more customizable burgers (compared to contemporaries like In-N-Out), legitimately great hand-cut fries, free toppings, and an uncompromising commitment to premium quality. The market responded and the brand became an icon.
However, growth has slowed over the past few years, with steep price increases and varying portion sizes attracting seriously venomous online backlash from previously loyal fans. There have been prominent stories in industry publications and social media predicting the downturn of the Five Guys empire, and there have indeed been a significant number of store closures in recent years. However, despite the fact that despite troubling price increases, changing consumer behavior, industry-wide cost pressures, and increasing competition have all weakened Five Guys’ value proposition, it’s fair to say that rumors of the brand’s demise have been greatly exaggerated.
But it is useful to consider how a Food & Beverage business that has been entirely based on providing a top quality, premium experience will be able to navigate the current economic storms and huge jumps in restaurant supply chain costs.
From the beginning, Five Guys distinguished itself by focusing on fresh beef, made-to-order burgers, quality locally made buns, unlimited fresh toppings, and comparatively large portions (particularly of their hand-cut fries). The restaurant’s workers were instructed to throw a large amount of “extra” fries in with every order, to give the impression that the customer was getting extra-special treatment and good value for the price.
This positioned Five Guys as a “premium” option for burgers and fries, elevated above traditional fast food chains and (judging by the brand’s initial popularity and rapid expansion), well worth the slightly higher price. Rather than engaging in traditional advertising methods, Five Guys relied on strong word-of-mouth marketing and developing a loyal customer base.
People took notice, local food journalists gave the local chain glowing reviews (which you can still read on the walls of franchise locations), and 5 open restaurants in the DC Metro area by 2001 quickly grew to 300 franchises over the next 18 months, reaching 1,000 restaurants in North America by 2012. By 2016, Five Guys had over 1,700 locations open worldwide, with 1,300 locations under development. It was determined to be the fastest-growing fast food chain in the United States, with a 32.8% sales increase from 2010 to 2011.
Since these days of peak growth, however, the chain’s expansion has dramatically slowed. As noted above, there are currently around 1,950 Five Guys locations worldwide with about 1,521 in the US. That means that over the last 10 years, the net expansion in the USA has only equated to a little over 200 restaurants… a far cry from the heady days of the fast-casual boom.
For 2024, Restaurant Business Online ranked Five Guys number 41 on the top 500 chains. Nothing to sneeze at, but things have definitely started to slow down, and not just for this particular burger joint. Another RBO article from June 2026 reports, “Restaurants have been steadily losing customers over the past couple of years, largely wiping out post-pandemic gains. The average location has fewer customers than it did in 2019. Much of that is due to a loss of their price-value equation. Restaurants raised prices by 13.5% from January 2023 to March 2026, compared with 5.5% grocery inflation over that same period… That hurt the industry’s price-value equation with a large portion of US consumers, especially those in lower and middle-income households.”
General trends away from dining out don’t account for the relative downturn in Five Guys’ popularity, though. The real issue is their price hikes. Nationally, prices at Five Guys have increased by up to 30% since 2020, with the average cost of a “small” burger meal (including standard “little” fries and a drink) now ranging from $18 to an eyewatering $25 depending on location. This surge—which outpaces standard inflation—is primarily driven by higher costs for premium ground beef, peanut oil, rent, energy, and local minimum wage hikes. In some high-cost-of-living areas, a double bacon cheeseburger alone can cost around $14. Five Guys’ portion of fries remains notoriously large (with some notable exceptions posted on social media), but it now regularly costs about $5 to $6 for a “little” fry and $7 to $9 for a regular or large.
For a lot of previously loyal Five Guys fans, this increase in prices has exceeded what they’re willing to pay for “fast food”... even if the quality is top-notch.
Five Guys built its reputation on fresh, premium ingredients and cut-no-corners quality. And the sad fact is, the price for this kind of quality has risen sharply over the past few years. Consumer sticker shock is less likely to become viral when it’s the price of broccoli in the grocery store that has doubled. But low- and middle-class patrons of fast-food or fast-casual restaurants have had plenty to complain about at Five Guys.
One viral tweet ranting about a $24 “little” bacon burger meal got over 25 million views and was featured on multiple news outlets. Entire threads on places like Reddit allowed critics to vent about Five Guys’ prices, with many saying the restaurant was badly overpriced “even before Covid.” The perception of value began to shift, with consumers increasingly comparing Five Guys not only to McDonald’s and Wendy’s, but also to sit-down restaurants offering similar prices for table service and full menus.
So, Five Guys faces a difficult challenge.Though their business model is built around an unflinching dedication to quality ingredients and a premium dining experience, consumers under financial strain are becoming less willing to pay the prices required. Recent inflation has changed customer expectations, and Five Guys now has the challenge of maintaining a premium image (and keeping quality high) while convincing diners the food is actually worth the higher costs. This is increasingly difficult as millennials and Gen Z diners dealing with higher costs of living and reduced discretionary spending are moving away from pricier fast-casual restaurants and toward less-expensive options such as McDonald’s or Chili’s (who has famously introduced several “value” menu items to attract more business), according to Reuters.
For a hamburger chain like Five Guys, the price of US beef has had an especially detrimental impact. Ground beef prices have skyrocketed by nearly 70% over the past 10 years, according to a CBS report, and projections are that prices will continue to increase in 2026 by between 10% and 18% based on a forecast from the US Department of Agriculture.
Higher energy prices have helped inflate these costs, as have rising wages, pressure on maintaining franchise profitability, and higher costs for vegetables and other ingredients. While some restaurants have made adjustments to their menu items or even offer loss-leader promotions to attract more business, betting on popularity making up the difference in profits, Five Guys has built its entire reputation on a very limited menu and premium ingredients. In this situation, it’s difficult if not impossible to maintain profit margins without raising menu prices, as the restaurant chain has learned to its cost.
When your bread-and-butter clientele begins significantly changing their spending habits in an environment of economic uncertainty, it’s difficult to make adjustments, especially when you’re locked in by a limited menu and the “quality trap” established by the operating model and decades of core company philosophy.
As prices have skyrocketed and customers have changed their spending habits, Five Guys has also been faced with the rise of premium burger rivals such as Shake Shack, In-N-Out, and other regional burger chains that have been able to either keep prices lower or convince customers that their premium experiences are indeed worth the premium prices.
Additionally, menu upgrades at major burger chains have helped woo potential customers away from Five Guys, and local restaurants are now often seen to offer better burgers at lower price points. This means that the key differentiators for Five Guys are shrinking.
Journalists and writers love hyperbole, and if not hyperbole then at least, shall we say, selective representation of the facts. Fast Company reported that Five Guys was closing stores and included a list of “doomed restaurant locations.” The LA Times published a story on local Five Guys closures. People published a summary of nationwide Five Guys location closures and store counts. TheStreet via Yahoo Finance reported “Five Guys burger chain franchises have been closing locations this year.” One prominent business YouTuber found success with titling his recent video, “Why nobody goes to Five Guys anymore” with the poignant question, “What went wrong” prominently featured on the video thumbnail. That’s premium-quality clickbait.
Delish also started their report with a “sky is falling” approach: “A recent US restaurant ranking named Five Guys the best fast food burger for the second year in a row but you might not be able to get it in your neighborhood soon. According to a report from Fast Company, Five Guys shuttered 14 American locations in early 2026—including restaurants across Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Georgia, and Nebraska—with plans to close even more. Between the end of May and July 2, four more locations will shut down across California… California state Worker Adjustment Retraining Notification (WARN) confirmed that dozens of jobs were eliminated by the closures, and the decision was ultimately due to ‘financial hardship’ [emphasis added].”
If we stop reading there, we might labor under the misapprehension that Five Guys is in serious trouble and is on its way out of business. However, Delish continues, “Here’s the good news: A handful of struggling Five Guys locations doesn’t necessarily signal trouble in paradise for the brand overall. QSR Magazine reports that the burger chain posted a net gain of 35 restaurants in 2024, even after closing 28 restaurants in that same year. The growth trend is continuing, as well. Despite recent closures, Five Guys has continued to expand.”
Restaurant Business Online provides a glass-half-full view also and says a lot of burger chains are doing just fine in a January 2026 article: “Five Guys, the largest fast-casual burger chain, has seen improving sales as well. Same-store sales last year through the third quarter rose 4.4%, according to a report in S&P Global, which rated bonds sold by the company’s international business. System sales at the chain are up 7.7% through the same period after finishing 2024 down slightly, at least in the US.”
So, TheStreet was technically not incorrect in saying “Five Guys burger chain franchises have been closing locations this year”... because they have been. But they have also been OPENING locations at the same time. It’s important to make the distinction between local underperformance and overall system growth. Sure, Five Guys closed 28 restaurants in 2024, but opened many more, with a net gain of 35 restaurants that year, and more in 2025 and 2026.
The fact is, at least for now, Five Guys is not shrinking in size or decreasing the net number of their locations, either nationally or worldwide. One could certainly argue that the restaurant chain’s growth has slowed, and it faces significant challenges as customers decide whether the premium burger joint’s juice is still worth the squeeze. Hopefully the iconic brand can find a way to keep quality high while holding prices at a level their core customers can accept.
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