Since the heating up of the current trade war (primarily with China) fueled by President Trump’s aggressive tariff plan starting around March 2025, it’s been somewhat difficult to predict what product categories might be next on the docket for increased import taxes. This difficulty extends from US businesses, political leaders, and consumers to foreign authorities as well. The Asahi Shimbun quoted a senior Japanese official as saying “No matter who I talk to in the US administration, none of them knows what Trump is thinking…. We don’t even know what Trump wants to negotiate on.” Another trade ministry official went so far as to quip, “It’s a strategy of the US side to deliberately not create a stage for negotiations.”
Another unconventional issue is the method through which President Trump has been announcing his decisions or plans to enact or change tariffs. It may be an offhand comment during a press event, or it may be included in a social media post. In some cases, no words at all are explicitly stated, but rather he might share a 3rd-party video, with only implied administrative action as a result. Regardless, these brief notifications have already resulted in (intended or unintended) impacts on US markets, prices, and supply chains, as we will discuss below.
The most recent kerfuffle arose on September 25, 2025 when Trump dropped one of his latest tariff bombs with a post on his social media platform, Truth Social: “Starting October 1st, 2025, we will be imposing a 100% Tariff on any branded or patented Pharmaceutical Product, unless a Company IS BUILDING their Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Plant in America. ‘IS BUILDING’ will be defined as, ‘breaking ground’ and/or ‘under construction.’ There will, therefore, be no Tariff on these Pharmaceutical Products if construction has started. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
So, where big pharmaceutical brands are concerned, how will Trump’s October 2025 tariffs impact the largest players and American consumers? As you may expect, opinions vary. Fortune says the new tariff will result in “a meaningful commercial hit for US consumers,” according to a September 26 article. However, this glass-half-empty view may brighten a bit when considering that generic versions of even the targeted, patented, foreign-produced pharmaceuticals will not be impacted. So unless you’re a dyed-in-the-wool name-brand pharma customer, the tariff really may not have a perceptible effect on you.
Furthermore, most, if not all large pharmaceutical conglomerates have at least some manufacturing facilities in the US already, with a few of the largest bazillion-dollar companies having “announced new construction in the US in recent months including Eli Lilly, AstraZeneca, Roche Holding and GSK. So far this year, more than a dozen drugmakers have pledged to spend more than $350 billion collectively by the end of this decade on manufacturing, research and development, and other functions in the US,” as reported by The Wall Street Journal.
US pharmaceutical companies’ stocks rose slightly with the news, and Asian pharma stocks were hit hardest, as one might expect. If history has taught us anything, this was the primary target of President Trump’s new tariff announcements.
Even before President Trump’s Fall 2025 tariff focus on foreign-made pharmaceuticals, supply-chain concerns arising from the US’s strong dependence on Chinese-made medications or Chinese-sourced pharmaceutical components have been a growing issue. In April 2025, supply chain AI company Exiger told Fox Business News that “the US currently imports 75% of its essential medicines, with most of them coming from China and India. While India produces about half of the generic drugs the US imports, it relies heavily on China for 80% of its active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). More than 500 generic drugs rely on one country’s APIs, including treatments for diabetes and heart conditions as well as antibiotics.”
According to the report, American patients are at risk of getting low-quality medication — or none at all — under the current supply chain setup. This is certainly somewhat sensationalist reporting, and other news and commentary sources have either misquoted the data intentionally or misunderstood the statistics, and several sources (including Congressional testimony) have claimed that the US gets 80% of its pharmaceutical products from China. A more informed or nuanced perspective shows that around 15%-18% of US consumers’ medications are actually made in China. But again, if it’s true that US and Indian drugmakers rely heavily on Chinese APIs, supply chain disruptions including the threat or implementation of tariffs can have a significant impact on the US pharmaceutical supply as well as the companies (and stockholders) that rely on them. Prices may increase and supply may decrease. Even if only certain patented, name-brand foreign-made drugs are hit with the 100% tariff, the companies making them are also frequently involved in the API supply chain as well, and prices on those components might rise as companies look for ways to absorb a sudden doubling of the import tax on primary brands.
The impact of a somewhat loose-cannon president making pharmaceutical or health-related claims can be clearly seen in a related industry as well. Cannabis stocks soared in the last couple of days of September 2025 after President Trump posted a video on Truth Social extolling the benefits of hemp-derived CBD to support or improve “the endocannabinoid system” within the human body, including comments urging changing the drug scheduling of certain CBD products to allow their coverage by Medicaid for America’s seniors. The video stated, “It’s time to educate doctors on the endocannabinoid system, provide Medicare coverage for CBD, and give millions of seniors the support they deserve.”
President Trump posted the video without further discussion, but in August 2025 the President made comments regarding rescheduling Cannabis from a Schedule I to a Schedule III category in the Controlled Substances Act, saying his administration would be looking into it soon. Cannabis industry CEOs rejoiced, and stocks began an upward trend, spiking further with the late-September pro-CBD video.
Marajuana Movement’s report on the September 29 incident cites a “a new poll [showing] that a majority of Americans don’t consider marijuana dangerous, though most do think consuming cannabis increases the likelihood that people will transition to using more dangerous drugs.” The story also claims that 2 in 3 Americans support legalizing marijuana nationwide.
It’s clear that for many fans of the Trump administration, even long-standing prejudices against cannabis and related products can be softened or even reversed along with the whims of the President’s comments and attention. Proponents of the move will point out that US-made CBD or other cannabis-derived medications could potentially fill in the supply-chain voids caused by the tariff on foreign medications.
President Trump is also implementing a 25% tariff on foreign-made heavy trucks, according to his announcement on September 25, 2025. “In order to protect our Great Heavy Duty Truck Manufacturers from unfair outside competition, I will be imposing, as of October 1st, 2025, a 25% tariff on all Heavy (Big!) Trucks made in other parts of the World. Therefore, our Great Large Truck Company Manufacturers, such as Peterbilt, Kenworth, Freightliner, Mack Trucks, and others will be protected.”
As is often the case in an increasingly globalized supply chain, the president understates or obfuscates the international nature of manufacturing. Several of the US’s traditionally domestic large truck brands have been acquired by international concerns. As Barron’s reported, “[US-based] Paccar makes Peterbilt and Kenworth trucks. Germany’s Daimler Truck makes Freightliner trucks. Sweden’s Volvo makes Mack trucks. [However,] Mack and Freightliner trucks are manufactured in the US. Daimler also has some manufacturing capacity in Mexico.”
Since tariffs can mean higher prices and more market share for domestic producers, related stocks responded the way one might expect to such an announcement, with Paccar stock gaining a whopping 5.2%, closing at $100.50, and the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average adding 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively, per Barron’s report. However, “Daimler stock fell 1.8% in overseas trading. Volvo stock gained 3.41%. For now, the market believes that Paccar and Volvo will be picking up share from Daimler.”
The story contained a bit of background into the struggles of the US heavy truck manufacturing industry as well, explaining that, “Coming into Friday trading, Paccar stock was down 8% this year and down 2% over the past 12 months.” A generally shrinking heavy truck market certainly has had an impact, but whether the very respectable Paccar gains in late September and a somewhat brighter outlook for US heavy truck manufacturing can overcome this trend remains to be seen.
If available trucks increase in price, it may be good for America’s truck manufacturers and wholesalers, but of course the increased prices must be absorbed by the entities that purchase and use them, with increased B2B and/or consumer prices potentially rising as a result.
President Trump’s new October 2025 tariffs also include a 50% percent tax on imported kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, a 30% percent tax on imported upholstered furniture, with these impacts compounded by the aforementioned 25% tariffs on any foreign-built heavy trucks used in construction. Add these new duties to the existing 2025 tariffs on foreign lumber, aluminum, and steel, which have been driving up construction costs already this year according to industry watchdogs, and US home buyers’ wallets will likely be feeling the bite. A June report claimed that the 2025 tariffs effectively added $26,180 to the cost of a new home in Oklahoma, and over $100,000 to a home in Hawaii. Builders or buyers in California and Massachusetts might expect to pay an additional $60,000 to build or buy a new home as a result of the trade war.
Vox is unabashedly critical of the move, explaining that the tariffs impact buyers directly. “When Trump slaps a 50 percent tariff on kitchen cabinets from abroad, American importers — not the foreign companies manufacturing the cabinets — pay that tax. They then pass those costs along to builders, who pass them to homebuyers. If a developer was planning to install $15,000 worth of imported cabinets in a new home, they’re now looking at an extra $7,500 in costs. Multiply that across appliances, fixtures, lumber, and steel, and the numbers add up fast. In total, about 7 percent of all goods used in new residential construction come from foreign countries, according to NAHB. That might sound small, but it represents $14 billion worth of materials in 2024 alone.”
The impact of tariffs on the home-construction supply chain is already being significantly impacted according to Vox’s report, even before the recent new taxes on cabinetry and furniture. Imported Canadian lumber represents roughly 85% of the US’s softwood lumber and 25% of the total domestic lumber supply. When President Trump more than doubled the 14.5% tariff rate on Canadian lumber to 35% in August 2025, materials prices soared and supply lines became increasingly strained. Since American sawmills don’t produce enough lumber to meet domestic demand, the expectation is that US homebuilders will face higher costs whether they buy Canadian lumber with higher tariffs or choose American lumber from a market with limited supply (and thus higher costs as a result). Those increased costs will be passed down to buyers.
“The tariffs aren’t just making materials more expensive — they’re making them scarcer and harder to predict,” stated the report. “This uncertainty is in some ways more challenging for developers than the costs themselves. Developers planning projects months or years in advance suddenly confront moving targets for material prices, and this unpredictability is already showing up in construction data. Single-family housing starts fell to a near 2.5-year low in August, while permits — a leading indicator of future construction — dropped to levels not seen since April 2023.”
On September 29, 2025, President Trump posted another announcement on his Truth Social threatening a significant tax on foreign films. He had initially teased this new tariff back in May, and it’s unclear what exactly could be his motivation for the renewed focus on the US film industry at this time. His post stated, “Our movie making business has been stolen from the United States of America, by other Countries, just like stealing ‘candy from a baby.’ California, with its weak and incompetent Governor, has been particularly hard hit! Therefore, in order to solve this long time, never ending problem, I will be imposing a 100% Tariff on any and all movies that are made outside of the United States.”
As with many aspects of the Trump administration’s 2025 trade war, critics are alternatively confused and judgmental about this potential new tariff, which has left many film-industry figures (both inside the US and outside) scratching their heads. Some feel it’s clear that the President doesn’t really understand how the US or global movie industry works, since defining what exactly constitutes “made outside of the United States” means where filmmaking is concerned is extremely problematic. Since the economic impact of foreign-produced movies seems to be the issue, at least according to President Trump, we must assume that the films in question are the popular, large-budget productions that have the potential to earn tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars, rather than truly independent films which are often produced by just a few people from the same domestic or foreign location.
Similar to the modern production of automobiles, computers, components, electronics, furniture, and pretty much everything else, commercial movie production, especially the big-budget movies produced by what most people would call the “film industry,” has frequently been multinational for many decades. A movie set in one or more foreign locales usually has at least part of its filming physically taking place outside of the USA, as just an obvious example. However, many of the sound stages, editing companies, sound design, post-production facilities, computer generated imagery (CGI) houses, production companies, and other vital filmmaking-related entities are located internationally as well. This means a movie set in Montana, directed by an American filmmaker, might actually be partially (or completely) filmed in Canada or elsewhere, and much or all of its editing, sound-stage shooting, and post-filming production might be done in England, just as one example. Whether or not a particular film would now qualify as being “made outside of the United States” is difficult to determine, and blanket statements or overzealous tariffs created by an ignorant (if well-meaning) political figure may cause more problems than they solve.
USA Today reported that California’s representatives with ties to the domestic film industry were critical of a blanket tariff, preferring instead a national domestic film tax credit. Shares of several film production companies had fallen since the announcement, and Representative Ted Lieu (D-California), “told reporters he co-authored the state tax credit for movies when he was in the state legislature but that tariffs would drive up costs to ticket buyers,” and continued, “It just seems like another random idea that he put out there with no thought about how it would actually be implemented… If it was implemented, it would increase consumer costs on movies.”
We’ve mentioned before that ill-conceived or poorly drafted tariffs often harm the people they are intended to help, at least in the short to middle term. Unfortunately the post-postmodern political arena is intent upon the optics of effective action quickly, while the underlying problems have taken many decades to create and will likely require a similar timeframe to resolve. All this adds up to an even more volatile supply chain environment, and hence the need to control anything that can be controlled.
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